Estimating Investment Needs for the Power Sector in Africa 2016 – 2025

How much investment is needed to realize the African Development Bank´s (AfDB) New Deal on Energy for Africa (the New Deal)? This is the overriding question that is thoroughly analyzed from the bottom-up for 54 countries in Africa, covering generation, inter-connectors, transmission and distribution (T&D), mini-grids and off-grid access options. Underlying the analysis is an unprecedented collection of data, high-resolution regional power investment optimization and a tailor-made access expansion model for the continent. The answer to this question is an average annual investment of 29-39 billion USD until 2025, depending on the continent’s ambition as to avoided greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In total, 230-310 billion USD is required until 2025, while an additional 190-215 billion USD is required for the period 2026-2030. The total average annual investment from 2018 to 2030 is estimated at 32-40 billion USD, as depicted in the figure below.

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